If you are searching for a miscarriage risk chart, you usually want one clear thing: how the chance of miscarriage changes as pregnancy progresses week by week. This guide gives you a practical miscarriage probability chart and miscarriage rate chart using published research, plus simple answers to the most searched week questions like chance of miscarriage at 5 weeks, 6 weeks, 7 weeks, and so on.
A gentle reminder: these charts describe averages in groups of people. Your personal risk can be higher or lower depending on age, medical history, ultrasound findings, and symptoms.
How to read a miscarriage risk chart
Most charts show one of two meanings:
- Remaining risk at a given week
This is the chance of miscarriage from that week onward (often to 20 weeks, depending on the study design). Many people mean this when they ask chance of miscarriage at 8 weeks. - Week-specific probability
This is the chance of miscarriage during that particular week only, not the whole rest of the pregnancy.
Both are useful, but they answer different questions.
Miscarriage probability chart: remaining chance of miscarriage by week
The table below uses a community based prospective cohort study that calculated weekly miscarriage probabilities and the remaining probability of miscarriage at each gestational week.
Important context: this study was conducted in rural western Kenya, so the exact percentages may not match every country or clinic population. It is still beneficial for understanding the overall pattern: risk generally declines as gestational age increases.
Miscarriage risk chart: remaining probability of miscarriage after reaching each week
| Gestational week reached | Remaining chance of miscarriage |
|---|---|
| 5 weeks | 16.5 percent |
| 6 weeks | 15.2 percent |
| 7 weeks | 13.0 percent |
| 8 weeks | 12.4 percent |
| 9 weeks | 11.6 percent |
| 10 weeks | 10.3 percent |
| 11 weeks | 8.8 percent |
| 12 weeks | 7.8 percent |
| 13 weeks | 5.7 percent |
These values come from the study’s “remaining probability of miscarriage” column, which is designed to answer the common question: now that I am at this week, what is the chance of miscarriage still ahead.
Miscarriage rate chart: probability of miscarriage during that week only
This second table shows the probability of miscarriage per gestational week (week specific risk), from the same cohort study.
Miscarriage rate chart: week specific probability
| Gestational week | Probability of miscarriage during that week |
|---|---|
| 5 weeks | 1.6 percent |
| 6 weeks | 2.5 percent |
| 7 weeks | 0.7 percent |
| 8 weeks | 0.9 percent |
| 9 weeks | 1.5 percent |
| 10 weeks | 1.5 percent |
| 11 weeks | 1.2 percent |
| 12 weeks | 2.2 percent |
| 13 weeks | 0.5 percent |
This is a probability chart of miscarriage rates by week in the strict sense: it estimates risk within that single week.
A second evidence view: miscarriage risk after a confirmed heartbeat
Many people are told they will feel more reassured once fetal cardiac activity is seen on ultrasound. A well known prospective cohort study of asymptomatic women with a viable singleton pregnancy seen on ultrasound reported that miscarriage risk fell rapidly with advancing gestation: 9.4 percent at 6 completed weeks, 4.2 percent at 7 weeks, 1.5 percent at 8 weeks, 0.5 percent at 9 weeks, and 0.7 percent at 10 weeks.
This is a different type of miscarriage chart because it applies to a specific situation: people without symptoms who have already had an ultrasound confirming viability. That is why the percentages can look lower than general population charts.
Why miscarriage charts differ from site to site
If you compare a miscarriage chart by week across websites, you will notice different numbers. That does not automatically mean someone is wrong. Common reasons include:
- Different starting point
Some charts start from the first positive test, others start after an ultrasound confirms fetal cardiac activity, and those are not the same risk group. - Different definition of what is counted
Some research counts very early losses that occur before a clinical visit, while other research is based on pregnancies recognized and followed clinically. - Different population
Miscarriage risk is influenced by factors like maternal age, prior pregnancy history, and underlying health conditions. A large registry analysis shows miscarriage risk varies greatly with maternal age and also shows recurrence patterns with prior losses.
How to use a miscarriage risk chart in a supportive way
A chart should help you feel informed, not blamed. Most early pregnancy losses are not caused by something you did. Major medical guidance notes that a large share of early pregnancy loss is linked to fetal chromosomal abnormalities, which are typically random.
If you are using a chart for reassurance, it helps to pair it with a clinical context, especially:
- Ultrasound findings
Confirming a viable intrauterine pregnancy and seeing fetal cardiac activity changes the risk estimate and usually lowers it compared with an earlier time point. - Symptoms
Bleeding can be scary. Research suggests heavy first-trimester bleeding, especially with pain, is associated with a higher risk of miscarriage compared with no bleeding, while spotting or light bleeding may not carry the same level of risk. - Age and history
Population studies consistently show risk varies with age and prior outcomes.
When a chart is not enough, you should seek care
Charts are not a substitute for assessment. Clinical guidance emphasizes evaluation of early pregnancy complications, particularly when there is pain or bleeding, to rule out conditions like ectopic pregnancy and to provide appropriate support.
Seek urgent medical advice if you have severe pain, fainting, dizziness, shoulder tip pain, heavy bleeding, or you feel significantly unwell.
